Hurricanes and Climate Change 2015

The Risk Prediction Initiative again sponsored this significant academic meeting, which highlights recent research into the relationships between climate variability and tropical cyclone activity. We supported the travel of two RPI researchers, plus myself to this meeting.

It is generally encouraging to see that the modelling studies are beginning to converge towards useful outcomes in determining regional TC variability, although the North Atlantic remains notoriously difficult to simulate using the standard GCM methodologies, possibly because of cold SST biases in Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivities of TC counts to model resolution, tracking algorithm and physical parameterizations have been a focus of much research presented here, and the promise of more useful GCM output related to TCs, is more present than at the last Summit, just a short 2 years ago.  Additionally, some insights into impacts on losses, and interactions with ocean dynamics were presented, which may be of interest to the Members.

This report, whilst not an exhaustive survey of all the talks, summarizes some of the more relevant and interesting presentations, with links to associated material available throughout. Where available, we have made presentation slide deck available also via the Members’ Area of the RPI website. If you have a particular theme or topic which you would like to discuss, please let us know.

Members can download the Summit Report from the workshop page.