RPI Published Journal Archive

Below is a list of published articles resulting from RPI funding dating back to 1997.


Demuth, J.L., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Improvement of advanced microwave sounding unit tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithms. J. Appl. Meteor., 45, 1573-1581.

Elsner, J., T.H. Jagger and A. A. Tsonis. 2006. Estimated return periods for Hurricane Katrina. Geophysical Research Letters, v33, L08704, doi:10.1029/2005GL025452,

Elsner, J. and T.H. Jagger, 2006. Prediction models for annual U.S. hurricane counts, Journal of Climate, in press.

Elsner, J., R. Murnane and T.H. Jagger. 2006. Forecasting U.S. hurricanes 6 months in advance, Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33, L10704, doi:10.1029/2006GL025693, 2006

Elsner, J., A. Tsonis and T.H. Jagger. 2006. High frequency variability in hurricane power dissipation and its relationship to global temperature, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v87, in press.

Jagger, T.H. and J. Elsner. 2006. Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United States, Journal of Climate, in press.

García-Herrera R., P. Ribera, E. Hernández and L Gimeno. 2006. Northwest Pacific Typhoons Documented by the Philippine Jesuits, 1566-1900. J. Geophysical Reasearch (under review)

Mailier, P.J., D.B. Stephenson, C.A.T. Ferro, and K.I. Hodges. 2006: Serial Clustering of Extratropical Cyclones, Monthly Weather Review, (in press).

Mueller, K.J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, J. P. Kossin, T.H. Vonder Haar. 2006. Objective Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure from Infrared Satellite Data. J. Applied Meteorology, in press.


Donnelly, J. P. 2005. Evidence of Past Intense Tropical Cyclones from Backbarrier Salt Pond Sediments: A Case Study from Isla de Culebrita, Puerto Rico, USA. J. Coastal Research. SI(42). 201-210.

Lu, H.Y. and Liu, K.B., 2005. Phytolith indicators of coastal environmental changes and hurricane overwash deposition, The Holocene 15 (7): 965-972.

Ribera P., R. García-Herrera, L. Gimeno, E. Hernández. 2005. Typhoons in the Philippine Islands, 1901–1934. Climate Research. 29: 85-90.


Cai, M. and E. Kalnay. 2004. Response to the comments by Rose et al. and Trenberth. Nature. 427: 214-214, doi:10.1038/427214a.

Donnelly, J. P. , J. Butler, S. Roll, M. Wengren and T. Webb III. 2004. A backbarrier overwash record of intense storms from Brigantine, New Jersey. Marine Geology 210: 107– 121.

Landsea, C. W., C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Dunion, J. Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer. 2004. The Atlantic hurricane database re-analysis project: Documentation for the 1851-1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database. In: Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present and Future. R.J. Murnane and K.-B. Liu, (Eds), Columbia University Press.

Liu, K. B. 2004. Paleotempestology: Principles, methods, and examples from Gulf coast lake-sediments. In: Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future. R.J. Murnane and K.-B. Liu, K.B. (Eds.), Columbia University Press, New York.

Louie, K. S. and Liu, K. B., 2004. Ancient records of typhoons in Chinese historical documents. In: Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present and Future. R.J. Murnane and K.-B. Liu, (Eds), Columbia University Press

Liu, K. B., 2004. Paleotempestology: Geographic solutions to hurricane hazard assessment and risk prediction. In: WorldMinds: Geographical Perspectives on 100 Problems. D. Janelle, B. Warf, and K. Hansen (Eds), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 443-448.

Murnane, Richard J., 2004: Climate Research and Reinsurance. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 697–707. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-5-697.

Murnane, R. J. 2004. The importance of best-track data for understanding the past, present, and future of hurricanes and typhoons. In: Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future. R.J. Murnane and K.-B. Liu, (Eds), Columbia University Press.

Murnane, R. and K. B. Liu. (Eds.), 2004. Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future. Columbia University Press, New York.


Dunion, J. P., C. W. Landsea, S. H. Houston, and M. D. Powell. 2003. A Reanalysis of the Surface Winds for Hurricane Donna of 1960. Monthly Weather Review. 131: 1992-2011

Elsner, J. B. 2003. Tracking Hurricanes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 84: 353-356.

Elsner, J. B., and K. B. Liu. 2003. Examining the ENSO-Typhoon Hypothesis. Climate Research. 25: 43-54.

Kalnay, E. and M. Cai. 2003. Impact of urbanization and land use on climate change. Nature. 423: 528-531

Liu, K. B. 2003. Documentary records of typhoon landfalls in China during the past 1,000 years: Historical climatology and societal implications. In: Encounter Between Meteorology and History of Science. T. Tsukahara and T. Mikami (Eds.), Kobe University, Kobe, Japan (in Japanese, with English abstract), pp. 43-57.

Liu, K. B., H. Y. Lu, and C. M. Shen. 2003. Assessing the vulnerability of the Alabama Gulf coast to intense hurricane strikes and forest fires in the light of long-term climatic changes. In: Integrated Assessment of the Climate Change Impacts on the Gulf Coast Region, Z.H. Ning, R.E. Turner, T. Doyle and K. Abdollahi (Eds), Gulf Coast Regional Climate Change Council, Baton Rouge, pp. 223-230.

Lu, H. Y. and K. B. Liu. 2003. Phytoliths of common grasses in the coastal environments of southeastern USA. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. 58: 587-600.

Louie, K.S. and K. B. Liu. 2003. Earliest historical records of typhoons in China. Journal of Historical Geography. 29: 299-316.

Lu, H. Y. and K. B. Liu. 2003. Morphological variations of lobate phytoliths from grasses in China and the south-eastern United States. Diversity and Distributions. 9: 73-87.

Liu, K. S. and J. C. L. Chan. 2003. Climatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast. Monthly Weather Review. 131: 1650-1662.

Scott, D. B., E. S. Collins, P. T. Gayes, and E. Wright. 2003. Records of prehistoric hurricanes on the South Carolina coast based on micropaleontological and sedimentological evidence, with comparison to other Atlantic Coast records. Geological Society of America Bulletin. 115: 1027-1039.


DeGaetano, A. T., and R. J. Allen. 2002. A homogenized historical temperature extreme dataset for the United States. Journal of Technology. 19: 1267-1284.

Jagger, T. H., X. Niu, and J. B. Elsner. 2002. A space-time model for seasonal hurricane prediction. International Journal of Climatology. 22: 451-465.

Liu, K. B. and M. L. Fearn. 2002. Lake sediment evidence of coastal geologic evolution and hurricane history from Western Lake, Florida. Reply to Otvos. Quaternary Research. 57: 429-431.

Murnane, R. J., M. Crowe, A. Eustis, S. Howard, J. Koepsell, R. Leffler, and R. Livezey. 2002. The weather-risk management industry's climate forecast and data needs: a workshop report. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 83: 1193-1198.


Allen, R. J., and A. T. DeGaetano. 2001. Estimating missing daily temperature extremes using and optimized regression approach. International Journal of Climatolology. 21: 1305-1319.

Arguez, A. and J. B. Elsner. 2001. Trends in US Tropical Cyclone Mortality During the Past Century. The Florida Geographer. 32: 28-37.

Donnelly, J. P., S. Smith Bryant, J. Butler, J. Dowling, L. Fan, N. Hausmann, P. Newby, B. Shuman, J. Stern, K. Westover, and T. Webb III. 2001. 700 yr sedimentary record of intense hurricane landfalls in southern New England. Geological Society of America Bulletin. 113: 714-727.

Donnelly, J. P., S. Roll, M. Wengren, J. Butler, R. Lederer, and T. Webb III. 2001. Sedimentary evidence of intense hurricane strikes from New Jersey. Geology. 29: 615-618.

Elsner, J. B. 2001. Reply to "Comment on changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th Century." Geophysical Research Letters. 28: 2873-2874.

Elsner, J. B. and B. H. Bossak. 2001. Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate. Journal of Climate. 14: 4341-4350.

Elsner, J. B., B. H. Bossak, and X. F. Niu. 2001. Secular changes to the ENSO-US hurricane relationship. Geophysical Research Letters. 28: 4123-4126.

Jagger, T. H., J. B. Elsner, and X. Niu. 2001. A dynamic probability model of hurricane winds in coastal counties of the United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology. 40: 853-863.

Liu, K. B., C. Shen, and K. S. Louie. 2001. A 1000-year history of typhoon landfalls in Guangdong, southern China, reconstructed from Chinese historical documentary records. Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 91: 453-464.

Weng, H. 2001. A combined dynamic and kinematic view of amplitude vacillation in baroclinic flows. In: Dynamics of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations and Climate. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Eds), China Meteorological Press, pp.229-251.


Allen, R. J. and A. T. DeGaetano. 2000. A method to adjust long-term temperature extreme series for non-climatic inhomogeneities. Journal of Climate. 13: 3680-3695.

Bender, M. A., and I. Ginis. 2000. Real case simulations of hurricane-ocean interaction using a high resolution coupled model: Effect on hurricane intensity. Monthly Weather Review. 128: 917-946.

Elsner, J. B., K. B. Liu, and B. Kocher. 2000. Spatial variations in major U.S. hurricane activity: Statistics and a physical mechanism. Journal of Climate. 13: 2293-2305.

Elsner, J. B., T. H. Jagger, and X. F. Niu. 2000. Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th Century. Geophysical Research Letters. 27: 1743-1746.

Elsner, J. B., and B. Kocher. 2000. Global tropical cyclone activity: a link to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters. 27: 129-132.

Landsea, C. W. 2000. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the seasonal predictability of tropical cyclones. In: El Niño and the Southern Oscillation : Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts. H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf (Eds). pp.149-181

Landsea, C. W. 2000. Climate variability of tropical cyclones: Past, Present and Future. In: STORMS. R. Pielke, Jr. and R. Pielke, Sr., (Eds). Routledge, New York, Vol. 1, pp. 220-241

Liu, K. B. and M. L. Fearn. 2000. Reconstruction of prehistoric landfall frequencies of catastrophic hurricanes in northwestern Florida from lake sediment records. Quaternary Research. 54: 238-245.

Liu, K. B. and M. L. Fearn. 2000. Holocene history of catastrophic hurricane landfalls along the Gulf of Mexico coast reconstructed from coastal lake and marsh sediments. In: Current Stresses and Potential Vulnerabilities: Implications of Global Change for the Gulf Coast Region of the United States. Z.H. Ning and K.K. Abdollahi (Eds.), Gulf Coast Regional Climate Change Council, Franklin Press, Baton Rouge, pp. 38-47.

Malmquist, D. L. and A. F. Michaels. 2000. Severe storms and the insurance industry. In: STORMS. R. Pielke, Jr. and R. Pielke, Sr., (Eds). Routledge Press. Vol. 1, pp. 54-69.

Murnane, R. J., C. Barton, E. Collins, J. Donnelly, J. Elsner, K. Emanuel, I. Ginis, S. Howard, C. Landsea, K. B. Liu, D. Malmquist, M. McKay, A. Michaels, N. Nelson, J. O'Brien, D. Scott, and T. Webb III. 2000. Model estimates hurricane wind speed probabilities. EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 81: 433-438.

Shen W., I. Ginis, and R. E. Tuleya. 2000. A sensitivity study of the thermodynamic environment on GFDL model hurricane intensity: implication for global warming. Journal of Climate. 13: 109-121.

Tang, L., C. Shen, K. B. Liu, and J. T. Overpeck. 2000. Changes in South Asian monsoon: new high-resolution paleoclimatic records from Tibet, China. Chinese Science Bulletin. 45 (1): 87-90.

Travis, J. 2000. Hunting prehistoric hurricanes: storm-tossed sand offers a record of ancient cyclones. Science News. 157: 333-335.


Collins, E. S., D. B. Scott, and P. T. Gayes. 1999. Hurricane records on the South Carolina Coast: can they be detected in the sediment record? Quaternary International. 56: 15-26.

Druyan, L. M., P. Lonergan, and T. Eichler. 1999. A GCM investigation of global warming impacts relevant to tropical cyclone genesis. International Journal of Climatology. 19: 607-617.

Elsner, J. B. and A. B. Kara. 1999. Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society. Oxford University Press, Inc., NY, NY. 488 pp.

Elsner, J. B., A. B. Kara, and M. A. Owens. 1999. Fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane frequency. Journal of Climate. 12: 427-437.

Malmquist, D. and R. Murnane. 1999. The Risk Prediction Initiative: A working example of a public-private partnership. In: Natural Disaster Management, T. Ingleton (Ed.), Leicester, England, IDNDR (International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction) Secretariat of the United Nations, p. 271-275.

Pielke, Jr., R. A. and C. W. Landsea. 1999. La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic hurricane damages in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 80: 2027-2034.


Bove, M. C., J. B. Elsner, C. W. Landsea, X. Niu, and J. B. O'Brien. 1998. Effect of El Niño on U.S. landfalling hurricanes, revisited. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 79: 2477-2482.

Chan, J. C. L., J. E. Shi, and C. M. Lam. 1998. Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Weather and Forecasting. 13: 997-1004.

Chang, P., L. Ji, H. Li, C. Penland, and L. Matrosova. 1998. Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters. 25: 1193-1196.

Elsner, J. B., X. F. Niu, and A. A. Tonis. 1998. Multi-year prediction model of North Atlantic hurricane activity. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. 68: 43-51.

Kimberlain, T. B. and J. B. Elsner. 1998. The 1995-96 North Atlantic hurricane seasons: a return of the tropical-only hurricane. Journal of Climate. 11: 2062-2069.

Malmquist, D. L. 1998. ENSO, tropical cyclones, and the insurance industry. ENSO Signal. 9: 4-6.

Penland, C. and L. Matrosova. 1998. Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures using linear inverse modeling. Journal of Climate. 11: 483-496.

Pielke, Jr., R. A. and C. W. Landsea. 1998. Normalized hurricane damages in the United States: 1925-1995. Weather and Forecasting. 13: 621-631.


Lehmiller, G.S, T.B. Kimberlain, and J.B. Elsner. 1997. Seasonal prediction models for North Atlantic basin hurricane location. Monthly Weather Review. 125: 1780-1791.

Michaels, A., D. Malmquist, A. Knap, and A. Close. 1997. Climate science and insurance risk. Nature. 389: 225-227.