RPI2.0 Seasonal Forecast Competition — Rules

Thank you for your interest in RPI's forecast competition. The competition is now closed.

US Coast Map
Hurricane Sandy 2012. Image Courtesy NOAA National Hurricane Center

Click here to view more technical details about our methodology, including verification rules.

For an overview of previous submitted seasonal forecasts please see December 2012, March 2013, May 2013 or August 2013.

1) Choose your Region
You can make a forecast for any or all of the six regions outlined in these maps:

Region 1: Entire US Coast       Region 2: Gulf Coast       Region 3: SE Coastline
US Coast Map Gulf Coast SE Coast Map
Region 4: Central East Coast Region 5: Northeast CoastRegion 6: Florida
Central East Coast Map North East Coast Map Florida Coast Map

2) Input your Forecast Type your prediction of the probability of landfall for a given storm intensity range into the boxes provided for your region(s) of interest. Any regions(s) you decide to omit will automatically be populated with climatological average probabilities. Input probabilities of landfall for 1, 2, 3, and 4 or more landfalls.
Florida Coast Map

3) Obey the Rule!
The only rule we impose is that the probabilities of 0,1, 2, 3 and 4 or more landfalls must sum to equal 1, so the probability forecasts in each of those categories must be between 0 and 1. We help you out here, by summing your forecast values for 0,1,2 & 3 landfalls, and subtract the total from 1. The remainder is the probability forecast of 4 or more landfalls, which is automatically populated for you.

4) Complete the survey
Forecast categories

Does the Public Sector out-perform Academica? Do Masters level forecasters make better predictions over PhDs? Are you forecasting using a dynamical, statistical or more (or less!) sophisticated method? To allow us to track trends and differences, please give us this information, along with your name and contact details. If you decide to submit anonymously, and neglect this information, your forecast will still be included, but all of the categories associated with your prediction will be entered as ‘Other’; of course, you will not be eligible for prizes and prestige if we don’t know your name or how to contact you!

5) Click Submit
You’re done! At the end of the Hurricane Season (November 30), we tally up the results for all submissions and notify the top 3 forecasters of their success. For more details on the verification process, and the full background on the seasonal forecast competition methodology, please click here.

Forecast rounds for the next hurricane season end on December 1, March 1 and May 1. Detailed results are posted within 1 month of closing each round. Final results following the season (including announcements of prize winners) will be made by January 15.