Thank you for your interest in RPI's forecast competition. The competition is now closed.
Click here to view more technical details about our methodology, including verification rules.
1) Choose your Region
You can make a forecast for any or all of the six regions outlined in these maps:
|Region 1: Entire US Coast||Region 2: Gulf Coast||Region 3: SE Coastline|
|Region 4: Central East Coast||Region 5: Northeast Coast||Region 6: Florida|
2) Input your Forecast
Type your prediction of the probability of landfall for a given storm intensity range into the boxes provided for your region(s) of interest. Any regions(s) you decide to omit will automatically be populated with climatological average probabilities. Input probabilities of landfall for 1, 2, 3, and 4 or more landfalls.
3) Obey the Rule!
The only rule we impose is that the probabilities of 0,1, 2, 3 and 4 or more landfalls must sum to equal 1, so the probability forecasts in each of those categories must be between 0 and 1. We help you out here, by summing your forecast values for 0,1,2 & 3 landfalls, and subtract the total from 1. The remainder is the probability forecast of 4 or more landfalls, which is automatically populated for you.
4) Complete the survey
Does the Public Sector out-perform Academica? Do Masters level forecasters make better predictions over PhDs? Are you forecasting using a dynamical, statistical or more (or less!) sophisticated method? To allow us to track trends and differences, please give us this information, along with your name and contact details. If you decide to submit anonymously, and neglect this information, your forecast will still be included, but all of the categories associated with your prediction will be entered as ‘Other’; of course, you will not be eligible for prizes and prestige if we don’t know your name or how to contact you!
5) Click Submit
You’re done! At the end of the Hurricane Season (November 30), we tally up the results for all submissions and notify the top 3 forecasters of their success. For more details on the verification process, and the full background on the seasonal forecast competition methodology, please click here.
Forecast rounds for the next hurricane season end on December 1, March 1 and May 1. Detailed results are posted within 1 month of closing each round. Final results following the season (including announcements of prize winners) will be made by January 15.